UBS Raised its Gold Forecast Again as the Precious Metal Trades at Record Levels

The strategists at UBS have raised their forecast for the spot price of gold in 2026, expecting the continuation of factors that have so far supported a series of record highs in its price.

The bank maintained its target for the end of 2025 at $3,500 per ounce, compared to the current price of around $3,380.

For the following year, UBS has increased its intermediate targets:

• up to $3,600 by the end of March (up from the previous forecast of $3,500),
• up to $3,700 by the end of June (again an increase from $3,500),
• and introduced a new forecast of $3,700 for the end of September.

The updated forecast comes after volatile months for gold, with the growth seen in the first half of the year temporarily slowing down due to a waning interest in “safe havens,” triggered by President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.

In August, investors monitored the possibility of U.S. tariffs on gold bullion — a rumor later dismissed by the White House as “disinformation.” At the same time, hopes are being fueled for a breakthrough in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which, if resolved, could reduce global demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

However, UBS strategists see enough momentum for gold to continue rising next year — mainly due to factors originating in the U.S.

They point out that a combination of persistent inflation in the U.S. (due to the impact of tariffs and immigration restrictions), weaker economic growth, renewed monetary easing by the Fed, and further dollar weakness will support gold.

“Especially since gold does not pay interest, its price rises when real yields in the U.S. decline – and they will decline precisely because of inflation and slow growth,” UBS commented.

Experts also note that investors remain concerned about the fiscal position of the U.S., related to the growing deficit, as well as uncertainty surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve, whose chairman Jerome Powell will leave his post in May next year. Both factors could increase demand for gold.

UBS already raised its gold forecast once in April, citing strong demand from central banks, which they expect to continue in the coming months, albeit at a slightly slower pace compared to the near-record purchases from last year.

China, India, and Turkey are among the largest gold buyers in recent years, using it as protection against inflation and as a tool for diversifying reserves. Last year, gold even surpassed the euro and became the world’s second-largest reserve currency after the U.S. dollar.