Gas prices for Europe resume their decline as Trump pushes for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine

European natural gas prices resumed their decline after U.S. President Donald Trump called for a summit between Russia and Ukraine following his meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House on Monday. Benchmark gas futures fell 2.2% on Tuesday, trading near their lowest levels in over a year. Trump urged direct negotiations in hopes of ending the war between Russia and Ukraine and stated that a one-on-one meeting could be followed by a trilateral summit including him. He assured Ukraine of security guarantees if a peace agreement is reached.

Trump’s diplomatic efforts are raising expectations that additional Russian energy supplies could return to global markets. Gas supplies remain limited following the energy crisis that erupted more than three years ago, and a larger flow could ease competition for cargoes.

Uncertainty still dominates the discussions, with no signs so far that Europe will return to large-scale energy imports from Russia. The European Union has pledged to gradually phase out such purchases by the end of 2027.

Citigroup Inc. forecasts that the Russian gas pipeline could resume transit to Europe through Ukraine as early as the end of this year. According to the bank, a confirmed peace agreement could lower European gas prices to €26 per megawatt-hour next year. About 11 billion cubic meters of gas per year could start flowing into Europe if the war ends, according to the bank’s analysts, including Maggie Xueting Lin.

Other experts in the gas market are more cautious. Chris Weafer, CEO of Macro-Advisory, believes that additional supplies of Russian gas are unlikely to have a significant impact until the winter of 2026/2027.