When the U.S. Government Shutdown Is Expected to End: Possible Scenarios According to Goldman

Key Highlights

• Polls show that Republicans and President Trump bear most of the public blame for the government shutdown compared to Democrats, which reduces the pressure on the left to compromise.
• Missed paychecks for air traffic controllers and TSA agents in early November could replicate the turning point from 2019, when the previous shutdown ended.
• The economic toll is projected at a 1.15 percentage point drag on Q4 GDP growth, with a rebound expected in early 2026.
• Democrats are demanding an extension of Obamacare subsidies as a condition for reopening the government, while Republicans remain opposed.
• Goldman estimates roughly 50/50 odds of a deal before Thanksgiving, most likely through a short-term funding resolution.
• Goldman Sachs expects the shutdown to end by mid-November, citing mounting economic and political pressure.

The longest government shutdown in U.S. history may soon be nearing its end, according to a new Goldman analysis, which predicts that rising operational strains and political deadlines will likely bring the standoff to an end around the second week of November.

The government shutdown, which has already surpassed the 35-day record set in 2019, persists mainly because there is insufficient political pressure to resolve the crisis. Polls indicate that most Americans blame Republicans and President Trump rather than Democrats, reducing the incentive for Democratic senators to back a so-called “clean” continuing resolution (CR) that would reopen the government.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration has taken unprecedented steps to mitigate the impact of the shutdown, continuing some payments such as military salaries, which are normally suspended during such events. Additionally, two judges ruled on Friday that payments under the SNAP food assistance program must continue. This strategy has delayed the emergence of more tangible consequences that could otherwise accelerate a deal.

Growing Pressure
According to Goldman Sachs, several key pressure points are emerging that could soon force lawmakers to act. Missed paychecks for air traffic controllers and TSA staff (scheduled for October 28 and November 10) may increase the risk of flight delays. During the 2018–2019 shutdown, transportation disruptions proved decisive in ending the impasse.

Political events in the coming days could also play a role — the start of open enrollment for health insurance (November 1), Election Day (November 4), and the beginning of Congress’s recess (November 7) could all serve as catalysts for compromise. Goldman notes that the prospect of canceling the planned recess could further motivate lawmakers to reach an agreement.

Possible Scenarios for Reopening the Government
Goldman outlines two main paths to restarting government operations.
The first — a handful of Democratic senators could break ranks and support the current short-term resolution, which would fund the government through November 21.
The second, seen as more likely, is a negotiated deal in which Democrats back the resolution if Republicans agree to later vote on extending healthcare subsidies after the government reopens.

A third, less likely scenario would involve Republicans passing the resolution by a simple majority. President Trump has encouraged this approach, but Senate Majority Leader John Thune publicly opposes it, and at least four Republican senators are expected to resist any rule changes.

According to Goldman, political prediction markets currently assign roughly even odds of the government reopening by mid-November, with less than a 20% chance that the shutdown continues past Thanksgiving.

The economic impact of the government shutdown could be the largest in history. Since the entire federal government is affected rather than just specific agencies, the firm estimates that this will reduce annualized GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2025 by 1.15 percentage points. Growth is then expected to rebound by 1.3 points in the first quarter of 2026, as delayed spending and back pay flow back into the economy.

Goldman now forecasts 1.0% real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2025 and 3.1% for the first quarter of 2026, assuming the government shutdown lasts around six weeks. The bank also expects delays in the release of key federal data, including the employment reports for September and November and the Consumer Price Index, with possible delays of a week or longer.

After weeks of deadlock, Goldman predicts that “the end of the government shutdown is now in sight,” driven by missed paychecks, political image concerns, and public fatigue. However, the firm cautions that the exact end date remains unpredictable, noting: “While it is uncertain, our current forecast is that the shutdown is most likely to end around the second week of November.”