US Session: Futures Brace for a Positive Start Ahead of Today’s Fed Decision

Here are five key things investors need to know at the start of the trading day:

1. Fed Day
Today marks the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. The interest rate decision is expected at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m.
Markets are pricing in around a 97% probability that rates will remain unchanged. Expectations point to a maximum of two rate cuts later this year. Additional intrigue comes from the possibility that President Donald Trump may soon announce a successor to Powell, whose term expires in May.

2. Starbucks delivers a positive surprise
Starbucks shares jumped more than 7% after the company reported better-than-expected revenue for the first fiscal quarter and an increase in customer traffic for the first time in two years. Earnings, however, missed forecasts. Later today, results are expected from Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla.

3. Political tensions in the U.S.
Democrats in the House of Representatives threatened impeachment proceedings against Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem following deadly incidents involving federal agents in Minneapolis. This raises the risk of a partial federal government shutdown as early as Saturday.

4. Amazon announces layoffs
Amazon announced layoffs affecting around 16,000 corporate employees as part of efforts to reduce bureaucracy. The company will also close its Fresh and Go stores, with some locations set to be converted into Whole Foods outlets.

5. End of open seating at Southwest
After more than 50 years, Southwest Airlines has officially ended its open seating policy. The airline is introducing assigned seating and more expensive front-of-cabin seats—a move expected to boost revenue but likely to spark debate among customers and investors.

S&P 500 futures rise on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and earnings releases from major technology companies.

Futures tied to the broader market index rose by 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.8%. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 27 points, or 0.1%.

U.S.-listed shares of ASML surged more than 5% after the semiconductor equipment maker reported record orders and issued a strong outlook for 2026, supported by the artificial intelligence boom. Shares of data storage infrastructure company Seagate Technology jumped more than 9% after its second-quarter results beat expectations, with CEO Dave Mosley pointing to strong demand for AI-driven storage solutions.

In addition to earnings, China has approved ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent to purchase Nvidia’s H200 AI chips, Reuters reported on Wednesday. Nvidia shares rose about 2%, alongside gains in other semiconductor companies such as Advanced Micro Devices and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar came under mild pressure again on Wednesday, a day after posting its worst session since April. Its decline over the past year now exceeds 10%. Tuesday’s move followed remarks by President Donald Trump, who declined to say the dollar had weakened excessively, stating instead that the currency was “doing great.”

Later on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 3.5%–3.75% range, with investors looking for signals on the longer-term direction of monetary policy. Federal funds futures point to expectations of two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of 2026, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

“The current economic outlook for the U.S. remains positive—growth continues, and the labor market, while slightly weaker, has stabilized. Inflation, however, remains above the Fed’s target, leaving little justification for immediate rate cuts,” said Christian Hantel, portfolio manager at Vontobel Asset Management.

“Instead, investors should focus on the March and June FOMC meetings as potential opportunities for a policy shift, although these could also be pushed into the second half of 2026 if conditions warrant,” he added. “All eyes will be on Chair Jerome Powell for signals regarding the Fed’s willingness to ease further, but for now the cautious ‘meeting-by-meeting’ approach appears set to continue.”

Reports from several major technology companies are ahead. Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Tesla will release their quarterly results on Wednesday after the market close, while Apple is scheduled to report on Thursday.

The S&P 500 comes off a winning session, rising 0.4% to a new all-time high. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.9%, while the Dow Jones fell more than 400 points, dragged down by a nearly 20% plunge in UnitedHealth shares.