Morning overview of upcoming events and what to expect ahead of the European open

Today’s economic calendar is packed with key events that could influence currency and financial markets. The day begins with data from France, where at 13:00 the total number of jobseekers for December will be released — an important indicator of labor market conditions in the euro area. At 15:00, attention turns to South Africa, where the central bank will announce its policy rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged.

At 15:30, a series of significant releases from the United States and Canada follows. Investors will monitor weekly U.S. jobless claims, Canada’s trade balance, as well as several U.S. macroeconomic indicators — labor productivity and unit labor costs for the third quarter, along with trade balance, exports, and imports for November. These data will provide a clearer picture of economic activity and inflationary pressures.

Later in the day, at 17:00, U.S. factory orders will be released, an important indicator of industrial demand. At 19:00, an update of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model for the fourth quarter will be published, closely watched as a guide to economic growth. The day will conclude with the auction of 7-year U.S. Treasury bonds at 20:00 and the evening release of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, which provides insight into liquidity and monetary conditions.

Link to the full calendar here:
https://calendar.varchevbrokers.com/calendar.php?lang=bg

Top 5 things to know before the European open

• Gold, copper, and silver rise to record levels amid a weaker dollar and rising geopolitical tensions.
  Copper in London jumped nearly 8% earlier, supported by optimism over stronger U.S. economic growth and increased global spending on data centers.
• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declines, erasing part of its gains after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent once again emphasized the “strong dollar” policy. Against the backdrop of the commodity rally, the Australian dollar and the South African rand strengthen against the U.S. dollar, outperforming other currencies.
• Oil continues its advance after closing at its highest levels since September. President Donald Trump warned Iran to reach a nuclear deal or face military strikes.
• Nasdaq futures edge higher, as U.S. technology earnings deliver mixed signals. Shares of Meta Platforms jumped in after-hours trading following a better-than-expected sales outlook, while Microsoft declined due to slower cloud growth and record spending.
• Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon are in talks to invest up to $60 billion in OpenAI, according to The Information. Tesla plans to invest $20 billion this year to optimize its electric vehicle lineup and allocate resources to robotics and artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund reduced its exposure to the largest U.S. technology companies — including its biggest holding, Nvidia — in the second half of 2025.

European stocks are expected to open higher on Thursday, as investors focus on a wave of earnings reports from some of the region’s largest companies.

The UK’s FTSE is seen rising by 0.15%, Germany’s DAX by 0.14%, France’s CAC 40 by 0.15%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB by 0.33%, according to IG data.

Companies reporting results include Deutsche Bank, ING, Wizz Air, Roche, Swedbank, ABB, Sanofi, Nokia, STMicroelectronics, and SAP, among others.

Thursday will also feature interviews with several chief executives and chief financial officers, including Deutsche Bank CFO James von Moltke, ING CFO Thanate Phutrakul, DWS CFO Markus Kobler, Wizz Air CEO József Váradi, Roche CEO Thomas Schinecker, Swedbank CEO Jens Henriksson, SAP CFO Dominik Asam, and SEB CEO Johan Torgeby.

In the U.S., attention also remains on earnings season, with Apple set to report fiscal first-quarter results later on Thursday after markets close. Mastercard, Caterpillar, and Lockheed Martin will also report earnings.

S&P 500 futures were little changed on Wednesday evening after investors assessed the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 3.5%–3.75% range.

In its post-meeting statement, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said indicators show that “economic activity is expanding at a solid pace,” while the unemployment rate has “shown signs of stabilizing.”

Federal funds futures continue to price in expectations for two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of 2026, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Markets in the Asia-Pacific region traded mostly lower on Thursday.

Forex options expiring today

There are no significant expiries worth highlighting today, with the full list shown below.

The situation remains the same as in recent days. Market sentiment will be driven primarily by other key factors — namely the continued weakness of the U.S. dollar, strong demand for precious metals, and potential intervention risks related to the Japanese yen.

The first two factors remain fully in play, with the dollar weakening again today. Yesterday’s brief pause was just that — temporary — and sentiment toward the dollar remains strongly negative. At the same time, precious metals continue to surge, with gold targeting a move toward $5,600, while silver earlier briefly touched the $120 level. Up, up, and higher still.

As for intervention risks in the yen, these have cooled slightly over the past few sessions. On Tuesday, Tokyo once again stepped in with a suspected “rate check,” pushing USD/JPY below its 100-day moving average. This has dampened dip-buying enthusiasm this week. The key level remains 153.71, which continues to be viewed as an important threshold, while the pair is currently trading around 153.00.

More notable expiries are due tomorrow, mainly in EUR/USD. However, these are positioned in the lower range between 1.1800 and 1.1900. Against the backdrop of the dollar selloff, it may be difficult for these expiries to have an impact unless we see a correction in pressure on the U.S. currency.

Last but not least, month-end flows should not be overlooked, as they are likely to begin influencing upcoming sessions ahead of the weekend.